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Six Degrees and =
Rising
Home =
Blogs =
=
Eco-Geek=20
=20
Six Degrees and Rising
Six Degrees and Rising
Friday, 20 November =
2009=20
Trevor Williams
=20
=20
=20
Scientists and newspaper headlines recently announced the World was =
on course=20
for a catastrophic 6=C2=B0C rise in temperature. This 6=C2=B0C rise, =
which is a predicted=20
average World temperature increase over the next century, with more =
extreme=20
changes expected for the north and south poles, is an irreversible =
planet-wide=20
disaster. Many parts of the Earth will become unsuitable for human or =
animal=20
existence.
The findings were recently presented in a Nature Geoscience =
article,=20
from The School of Environment Sciences,University of East =
Anglia=20
and backed by a slew of prominent researchers. The consequences of =
global=20
temperatures rising is also the subject of an amazing book by Mark Lynas =
-=20
Six =
Degrees: Our=20
Future on a Hotter Planet.
The simple fact of the matter is that since 2000, carbon dioxide has =
risen by=20
3% per year, mostly due to the enormous growth in the Chinese economy, =
driven by=20
worldwide insatiable consumption and population growth. In contrast, =
carbon=20
dioxide growth was 1% per year between 1990-2000.
Adobe Flash Player not installed or =
older than=20
9.0.115!
Most knowledgeable scientists believe 2=C2=B0C is the limit of =
increase.=20
Scientists, along with much of the citizen population, see Copenhagen as =
the=20
last chance to stabilize emissions and =E2=80=98hopefully=E2=80=99 avoid =
exceeding a 2=C2=B0C rise.=20
As the temperature increases, carbon sinks, oceans, forests and soils, =
can no=20
longer absorb so much carbon, leaving more carbon dioxide in the =
atmosphere to=20
trap the sun=E2=80=99s heat and raise global atmospheric, ocean and land =
temperatures.=20
This will lead to rampant arctic ice, glacier and Greenland ice sheet =
melting,=20
and further heat absorption by the ocean and land exposed underneath the =
rapidly=20
disappearing, and highly reflective snow and ice.
The fear is that we have already reached the =E2=80=98tipping =
point=E2=80=99. Whereas,=20
normally 40% of carbon dioxide remained in the atmosphere over a year, =
now there=20
is up to 45% remaining - showing that the sinks are failing or other =
mechanisms=20
are actually releasing carbon dioxide.
Adobe Flash Player not installed or =
older than=20
9.0.115!
So, as you stick your head in the sand and think that a little bit of =
warm=20
weather never hurt anyone, let=E2=80=99s look at the reality. Think of =
the planet as=20
your body and let=E2=80=99s see what happens to you when you experience =
an average=20
increase of 6=C2=B0C and what will happen to the planet as its =
temperature rises too.=20
This isn=E2=80=99t to say that your body temperature will rise each time =
that Earth=E2=80=99s=20
does, but it may help you relate to the trauma Gaia will experience.
Temperatures Rising
You: 37=C2=B0C (98.6F) - Normal body temperature =
(which varies=20
between about 36.1-37.5=C2=B0C (96.8-99.5F) over a daily=20
cycle.
Earth: The 2007 global average was 14.73 =
=C2=B0C=20
(58.5F), the second warmest year on record. Northern hemisphere average =
was=20
15.04 =C2=B0C (59.1F) =E2=80=93 the hottest temperature since record =
keeping began in 1880.=20
This is 1=C2=B0C hotter than the 1951=E2=80=9380 average. Global average =
temperature rose=20
from 14.02=C2=B0C in the 1970s to 14.26 =C2=B0C in the 1980s and =
14.40=C2=B0C in the 1990s,=20
according to NASA Goddard data. Over the last 8 years the =
global=20
temperature has been 14.64=C2=B0C. Right now over 1 billion people lack =
adequate=20
water supplies, there are famines and droughts, while animal and plant =
species=20
are under threat of extinction or extreme stress, and severe, =
unpredictable=20
storms are occurring with increasing frequency. So the Earth =
isn=E2=80=99t particularly=20
healthy right now, and is in no shape to deal with further heat stress. =
Earth: =
+1=C2=B0C: 14.7=C2=B0C,=20
taking 13.7=C2=B0C as the 1951-1980 global average temperature. The =
extra degree just=20
makes life a bit more uncomfortable, more ice melting, increased fury in =
storms,=20
noticeable changes in seasonal weather patterns that affect wildlife and =
crops,=20
more droughts.
You: +2=C2=B0C: 39=C2=B0C (102.2=C2=B0F). Severe =
sweating, feeling flushed=20
and very hot. You may be experiencing a fast heart rate, breathlessness =
and=20
exhaustion. Children and people with epilepsy may be very likely to get=20
convulsions at this point.
Earth: +2=C2=B0C: 15.7=C2=B0C. More of the same, but =
becoming=20
increasingly deadly =E2=80=93 loss of summer arctic sea ice, crop =
failures, rising ocean=20
temperatures, increasing desertification, large scale forest fires, =
further loss=20
of species, and spreading of insect borne diseases. The Earth is also=20
experiencing =E2=80=98convulsions=E2=80=99 and =
=E2=80=98exhaustion=E2=80=99 trying to absorb all that excess=20
carbon and heat energy.
You: +3=C2=B0C: 40=C2=B0C (104=C2=B0F) - Fainting, =
dehydration, weakness,=20
vomiting, headache and dizziness may occur as well as profuse sweating. =
At this=20
temperature, life is threatened.
Earth: +3=C2=B0C: 16.7=C2=B0C. Loss of soil moisture =
leads to=20
large-scale crop failures, more people without access to adequate water=20
supplies. An increase in planetary wide animal extinctions. The Earth is =
dehydrating, as deserts expand and sweats more too, as cloud cover =
increases and=20
mega-storms develop in parts of the world.
You: +4=C2=B0C: 41=C2=B0C (105.8=C2=B0F) =E2=80=93 =
You are in a state of medical=20
emergency with severe dizziness, confusion, hallucinations, delirium and =
drowsiness.
Earth: +4=C2=B0C: 16.7=C2=B0C. 10m (33ft) sea level =
rise. Major cereal=20
crop yields expected to drop worldwide. Indian Himalayas and western =
China fresh=20
water greatly reduced as glaciers disappear. The Amazon rain forest =
disappears,=20
global temperature runaway as permafrost melts releasing methane. Now =
there are=20
an estimated three billion people without adequate water supplies and =
upwards of=20
600 million people affected by sea level rises. Many more animal species =
are=20
disappearing or in severe distress. Over 70% of the emitted carbon =
dioxide will=20
stay in the atmosphere as carbon sinks collapse.
You: +5=C2=B0C: 42=C2=B0C (107.6=C2=B0F). Your body =
is shutting down. =20
Symptoms include severe delirium, vomiting, and convulsions. You may =
become=20
comatose.
Earth: +5=C2=B0C: 17.7=C2=B0C. Dramatically =
different weather patterns=20
and growing seasons =E2=80=93 the equator would likely be a dead zone on =
much of the=20
land =E2=80=93 what=E2=80=99s left above water that is, and increasing =
desertification would=20
push the last of the humans and animals to the poles or off the planet =
=E2=80=93 if=20
there is anywhere else to go by then since society, law and order would =
likely=20
have broken down.
You: +6=C2=B0C: 43=C2=B0C (109.4=C2=B0F) =E2=80=93 =
Possible death or serious brain=20
damage, continuous convulsions and shock. Cardio-respiratory collapse =
will most=20
likely occur.
Earth: +6=C2=B0C: 18.7=C2=B0C. Just like the human =
body, most of=20
Earth=E2=80=99s life systems as we now know them today, would either be =
destroyed or=20
near collapse. Nobody can accurately predicate what will happen to the =
planet at=20
this point. There is unlikely to be many people left to record what =
happens=20
anyway. The carbon cycle would be out of control, fed by =
=E2=80=98natural=E2=80=99 cycles and=20
unlikely to reduce in levels for tens of thousands of years but at least =
the=20
biggest polluters =E2=80=93 humans =E2=80=93 will no longer be in the =
picture.
The future looks very grim indeed with a rapidly warming planet. Each =
degree=20
that the planet warms will bring about more catastrophes and =
temperatures not=20
experienced for over a 100 million years, when dinosaurs wandered =
through=20
rainforests near the Poles, crocodiles swam at the North Pole, and =
Europe=20
was a desert.
There will be mass extinction of many species, including our own, =
with the=20
human population reduced to survivors clinging to life. The tropics will =
be too=20
hot to grow crops; the sub-tropics too dry for agriculture and billions =
of=20
people will go thirsty and hungry. As the oceans rise, rich agricultural =
low-lying land would disappear. High latitude and near polar regions =
would=20
become the last standing ground for the human race and whatever animals =
could=20
adapt.
It=E2=80=99s going to get hot, crowded, and desperate, with everyone =
on the planet=20
wishing they had spoken up, and taken action, when they had the chance. =
The=20
chance is now, not in 2=C2=B0C time.
Trevor Williams is a University of Victoria Mechanical =
Engineering PhD=20
candidate specializing in renewable energy, power grid modeling and =
plug-in=20
hybrid electric vehicles. He has a bachelors in Aeronautical =
Engineering, a=20
Masters in Management Science and over 23 years international experience =
in the=20
space industry, having worked on Earth observation and =
telecommunications=20
satellites. He is the author of the Eco-Geek=20
blog.
=20
Comments (4)
some of the =
best=20
hypothetical scare tactics I have seen. written =
by JC ,=20
November 22, 2009
What an =
informative blog=20
-- and a very clear way of illustrating exactly what we could be in for. =
Though=20
I wish the news was better. :)
Congratulations. written by Leslie Garrett , November 30, 2009 =
Earth Day 2010 =
all people,=20
regardless of race, gender, income, or geography, have a moral right to =
a=20
healthy, sustainable environment. Our mission is to broaden and =
diversify the=20
environmental movement worldwide, and to mobilize it as the most =
effective=20
vehicle for promoting a healthy, sustainable environment. written by Reeta Sethi , December 01, 2009 =
WE'RE ALL =
SCREWED! IT'S=20
TOO LATE TO DO ANYTHING ANYMORE THANKS TO UNPASSED LAWS AND NO WILL =
POWER TO DO=20
ANYTHING written by Rico Suave , November 07, =
2010=20
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